阿富汗迎来有积极迹象的新未来
来源：
作者：James O’Neill 点击：
发布时间：2021-07-14 17:15:07
一则来自阿富汗的消息对美国不利。美军在没有告知阿富汗方的情况下，在深夜从巴格拉姆（Bagram）军事基地“悄悄”撤离。而塔利班（Taliban）组织趁机对此基地强势反扑。
在阿富汗其他地区，塔利班取得了飞速进展，现在他们可能只需要几周的时间就能控制整个阿富汗。阿富汗军队的快速溃败引起了阿富汗边境国家的警惕。特别是阿富汗迅速变化的时局引起了一些与阿富汗接壤的上海合作组织（SCO）成员国的关注。
此形势下，中国外长王毅紧急访问与阿富汗接壤的三个国家。此次访问是应土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦政府的邀请，王毅将于7月12日至16日对以上三个国家进行访问，并出席上海合作组织成员国外长理事会会议、“上合组织—阿富汗联络组”外长会议、“中亚和南亚：地区互联互通的挑战和机遇”高级别国际会议。
这些会议将在上海合作组织-阿富汗联络小组会议之前举行。会议的目的是就促进地区和平，包括提高上海合作组织与阿富汗的合作水平等重要问题交换意见。
美军从阿富汗的迅速撤军导致阿富汗局势一定程度的不稳定，中国和其他邻国担心这会对自己的领土造成不稳定。
阿富汗是上合组织四个观察员国之一，上合组织在促进阿富汗稳定方面发挥着潜在的重要作用。阿富汗的六个邻国都是上合组织成员。因此，上合组织在推动向阿富汗提供一系列发展援助方面具有独特的优势，包括促进推动开发阿富汗丰富资源的项目。在美国及其盟国对阿富汗占领的20年里，阿富汗的资源开发很大程度上被忽视了。
7月，塔利班发言人苏梅勒·沙欣（Suhail Shaheen）在接受采访时表示，塔利班将中国视为朋友，一旦掌权，他们将与中国就被占领多年而被忽视的阿富汗的国家资产进行谈判。
中国政府通过其外交部长王毅发表的重要声明是将庞大的巴基斯坦-中国经济发展扩大到包括阿富汗。如果这取得成功，将在确保阿富汗经济复苏方面发挥重要作用，阿富汗的国家经济在过去20年里一直被持续的战争而阻碍。
很明显的是，俄罗斯将是阿富汗重建的重要组成部分。尽管俄罗斯政府还未正式承认塔利班组织，但它还是在莫斯科举办了几次有塔利班政权代表参加的重要会议。当被问及俄罗斯对阿富汗的态度时，外交部长拉夫罗夫对此表示不屑。很明显，俄罗斯未来对该国的任何参与都将在上海合作组织的背景下进行。
应塔吉克斯坦政府要求，俄罗斯已向塔吉克斯坦派遣了一支部队协助塔吉克斯坦进行边境保护。塔吉克斯坦政府对阿富汗难民越境涌入感到震惊，这威胁到该国对突然涌入的大量难民的应对能力。
然而，越境涌入的难民的数量与多年来在巴基斯坦寻求庇护的近150万阿富汗人相比还是相对较小。巴基斯坦政府对塔利班表示同情，这也是美国从阿富汗撤军后，巴基斯坦拒绝美国使用其军事设施的请求的原因。美国的撤军计划定于8月进行。
美国宣布他们保留在阿富汗发动空袭的权利，据推测，他们可能是从其中东基地之一起飞，很难看出这一声明背后的理由。美国在阿富汗没有可持续的利益。这些航班可能是为了支持阿富汗军队，但在塔利班接管该国之后，很难看到后者发挥任何实质性作用，而这现在只是一个时间问题。
其他外国军队的立场也受到质疑。例如，澳大利亚政府对其20年前派遣的阿富汗军事特遣队一直保持沉默。在2001 年9月11日世贸中心遭到袭击后，澳大利亚政府将部队派遣于此并开始驻扎在这里。当时的澳大利亚总理约翰霍华德（John Howard）将太平洋共同防卫组织（ANZUS）条约作为参与的理由，这是该条约唯一一次被援引。
目前，一些澳大利亚士兵因涉嫌谋杀阿富汗囚犯而正在接受调查。澳大利亚从阿富汗撤军后，此事现在是否继续还是一个悬而未决的问题。澳大利亚撤回后对阿富汗政府的支持尚不明确，对塔利班接管的态度也未可知，但不太可能是有利的。
阿富汗对未来的最大希望在于其与上合组织的合作。目前的初步迹象是积极的，塔利班领导人和上合组织主要国家，特别是中国和俄罗斯都对此做出了积极回应。几十年来，阿富汗的未来第一次看起来是积极的。
在阿富汗其他地区，塔利班取得了飞速进展，现在他们可能只需要几周的时间就能控制整个阿富汗。阿富汗军队的快速溃败引起了阿富汗边境国家的警惕。特别是阿富汗迅速变化的时局引起了一些与阿富汗接壤的上海合作组织（SCO）成员国的关注。
此形势下，中国外长王毅紧急访问与阿富汗接壤的三个国家。此次访问是应土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦政府的邀请，王毅将于7月12日至16日对以上三个国家进行访问，并出席上海合作组织成员国外长理事会会议、“上合组织—阿富汗联络组”外长会议、“中亚和南亚：地区互联互通的挑战和机遇”高级别国际会议。
这些会议将在上海合作组织-阿富汗联络小组会议之前举行。会议的目的是就促进地区和平，包括提高上海合作组织与阿富汗的合作水平等重要问题交换意见。
美军从阿富汗的迅速撤军导致阿富汗局势一定程度的不稳定，中国和其他邻国担心这会对自己的领土造成不稳定。
阿富汗是上合组织四个观察员国之一，上合组织在促进阿富汗稳定方面发挥着潜在的重要作用。阿富汗的六个邻国都是上合组织成员。因此，上合组织在推动向阿富汗提供一系列发展援助方面具有独特的优势，包括促进推动开发阿富汗丰富资源的项目。在美国及其盟国对阿富汗占领的20年里，阿富汗的资源开发很大程度上被忽视了。
7月，塔利班发言人苏梅勒·沙欣（Suhail Shaheen）在接受采访时表示，塔利班将中国视为朋友，一旦掌权，他们将与中国就被占领多年而被忽视的阿富汗的国家资产进行谈判。
中国政府通过其外交部长王毅发表的重要声明是将庞大的巴基斯坦-中国经济发展扩大到包括阿富汗。如果这取得成功，将在确保阿富汗经济复苏方面发挥重要作用，阿富汗的国家经济在过去20年里一直被持续的战争而阻碍。
很明显的是，俄罗斯将是阿富汗重建的重要组成部分。尽管俄罗斯政府还未正式承认塔利班组织，但它还是在莫斯科举办了几次有塔利班政权代表参加的重要会议。当被问及俄罗斯对阿富汗的态度时，外交部长拉夫罗夫对此表示不屑。很明显，俄罗斯未来对该国的任何参与都将在上海合作组织的背景下进行。
应塔吉克斯坦政府要求，俄罗斯已向塔吉克斯坦派遣了一支部队协助塔吉克斯坦进行边境保护。塔吉克斯坦政府对阿富汗难民越境涌入感到震惊，这威胁到该国对突然涌入的大量难民的应对能力。
然而，越境涌入的难民的数量与多年来在巴基斯坦寻求庇护的近150万阿富汗人相比还是相对较小。巴基斯坦政府对塔利班表示同情，这也是美国从阿富汗撤军后，巴基斯坦拒绝美国使用其军事设施的请求的原因。美国的撤军计划定于8月进行。
美国宣布他们保留在阿富汗发动空袭的权利，据推测，他们可能是从其中东基地之一起飞，很难看出这一声明背后的理由。美国在阿富汗没有可持续的利益。这些航班可能是为了支持阿富汗军队，但在塔利班接管该国之后，很难看到后者发挥任何实质性作用，而这现在只是一个时间问题。
其他外国军队的立场也受到质疑。例如，澳大利亚政府对其20年前派遣的阿富汗军事特遣队一直保持沉默。在2001 年9月11日世贸中心遭到袭击后，澳大利亚政府将部队派遣于此并开始驻扎在这里。当时的澳大利亚总理约翰霍华德（John Howard）将太平洋共同防卫组织（ANZUS）条约作为参与的理由，这是该条约唯一一次被援引。
目前，一些澳大利亚士兵因涉嫌谋杀阿富汗囚犯而正在接受调查。澳大利亚从阿富汗撤军后，此事现在是否继续还是一个悬而未决的问题。澳大利亚撤回后对阿富汗政府的支持尚不明确，对塔利班接管的态度也未可知，但不太可能是有利的。
阿富汗对未来的最大希望在于其与上合组织的合作。目前的初步迹象是积极的，塔利班领导人和上合组织主要国家，特别是中国和俄罗斯都对此做出了积极回应。几十年来，阿富汗的未来第一次看起来是积极的。
The news from Afghanistan is not good for the Americans. The troops abandoned the Bagram military base in the dead of night without bothering to advise their Afghanistan “allies”. Looters moved in before being replaced by the Taliban forces who naturally rejoiced at the treasure trove of weapons and other equipment that the Americans had abandoned.
Throughout the rest of the country the Taliban are making record advances and it is now likely only a matter of weeks before they control the whole of the country. The rapid defeat of the regular government troops has raised some alarm in countries on Afghanistan’s borders. In particular the rapidly changing situation in Afghanistan has raised concerns among member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) several of whom share borders with Afghanistan.
The rapidly changing situation has led to China’s foreign minister Wang Yi to make urgent visits to 3 countries that share a border with Afghanistan. The visits come at the invitation of the governments of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and will take place between July 12th and 16th.
These meetings will precede a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation-Afghanistan contact group. The object of the meeting is for the parties to exchange views on promoting peace in the region, including, importantly, increasing the level of cooperation between the SCO and Afghanistan.
The rapid United States withdrawal from Afghanistan has given rise to a level of instability in Afghanistan that China, among other neighbouring countries, fears create instability within their own territories.
The SCO has a potentially important role to play in promoting stability in Afghanistan which is one of four observer states of the SCO. Six of Afghanistan’s neighbours are members of the SCO. As such the SCO is uniquely placed to promote a range of development assistance to Afghanistan, including the promotion of projects to develop Afghanistan rich resources. The latter have largely been neglected through the 20 years of American occupation and that of its allies.
A Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen gave an interview to This Week in Asia last Wednesday. Mr Shaheen said that the Taliban sees China as a friend and once they hold power they will engage in talks with China about beginning the process of reconstruction of the countries assets, neglected during the years of occupation.
And important announcement made by the Chinese government through its foreign minister Wang Yi was for an expansion of the huge Pakistan – China economic development to include Afghanistan. If this succeeds it will play an important role in securing Afghanistan’s economic recovery, which has essentially been handicapped for the past 20 years by continuous warfare.
It is clear that Russia will be an important part of Afghanistan’s redevelopment. Although the Russian government does not officially recognise the Taliban group it has nonetheless played host to several important meetings in Moscow involving representatives of the Taliban regime. When asked about a possible Russian return to Afghanistan the foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was dismissive. It is clear that any future Russian involvement in the country will be in the context of the SCO.
At the request of the Tajikistan government Russia has sent a contingent of troops to that country to assist with border protection. The Tajikistan government became alarmed at the influx of Afghan refugees across its borders which threatened the countries capacity to cope with a sudden and large influx of refugees.
The numbers however, remain relatively small. They do not begin to compare with the estimated 1.5 million Afghans who have sought refuge in Pakistan over the years. The Pakistan government is sympathetic to the Taliban, which is one reason why it refused an American request for the use of its military facilities following the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan, now scheduled for August.
The Americans have announced that they reserve the right to mount air attacks in Afghanistan, presumably flying from one of their Middle East bases. It is difficult to see the rationale behind this announcement. The United States has no sustainable interest in Afghanistan. The flights will presumably be in support of Afghan government troops, but it is difficult seeing the latter having any substantial role following the inevitable Taliban takeover of the country which must now be only a matter of time.
The position of other foreign troops must also be open to question. The Australian government for example, has been conspicuously quiet on the fate of its military contingent in Afghanistan which began 20 years ago. They were first committed to Afghanistan following 11 September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centre and have been there ever since. The then Australian Prime Minister John Howard cited the ANZUS treaty as the rationale for the involvement, the only time the treaty has ever been invoked.
A number of Australian troops are now under investigation for allegedly murdering Afghanistan prisoners. Whether that matter now proceeds in the light of Australia’s withdrawal of his troops from Afghanistan is an open question. Post withdrawal support for the Afghan government is now conspicuously absent. The response to a Taliban takeover is unknown, but it is unlikely to be favourable.
Afghanistan’s best hope for the future lies in its association with the SCO. The early signs are encouraging with a positive response being shown both by the Taliban leadership and also the major countries involved in the SCO, especially China and Russia. For the first time in several decades, Afghanistan future at last looks positive.
(责任编辑：James O’Neill)
Throughout the rest of the country the Taliban are making record advances and it is now likely only a matter of weeks before they control the whole of the country. The rapid defeat of the regular government troops has raised some alarm in countries on Afghanistan’s borders. In particular the rapidly changing situation in Afghanistan has raised concerns among member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) several of whom share borders with Afghanistan.
The rapidly changing situation has led to China’s foreign minister Wang Yi to make urgent visits to 3 countries that share a border with Afghanistan. The visits come at the invitation of the governments of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and will take place between July 12th and 16th.
These meetings will precede a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation-Afghanistan contact group. The object of the meeting is for the parties to exchange views on promoting peace in the region, including, importantly, increasing the level of cooperation between the SCO and Afghanistan.
The rapid United States withdrawal from Afghanistan has given rise to a level of instability in Afghanistan that China, among other neighbouring countries, fears create instability within their own territories.
The SCO has a potentially important role to play in promoting stability in Afghanistan which is one of four observer states of the SCO. Six of Afghanistan’s neighbours are members of the SCO. As such the SCO is uniquely placed to promote a range of development assistance to Afghanistan, including the promotion of projects to develop Afghanistan rich resources. The latter have largely been neglected through the 20 years of American occupation and that of its allies.
A Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen gave an interview to This Week in Asia last Wednesday. Mr Shaheen said that the Taliban sees China as a friend and once they hold power they will engage in talks with China about beginning the process of reconstruction of the countries assets, neglected during the years of occupation.
And important announcement made by the Chinese government through its foreign minister Wang Yi was for an expansion of the huge Pakistan – China economic development to include Afghanistan. If this succeeds it will play an important role in securing Afghanistan’s economic recovery, which has essentially been handicapped for the past 20 years by continuous warfare.
It is clear that Russia will be an important part of Afghanistan’s redevelopment. Although the Russian government does not officially recognise the Taliban group it has nonetheless played host to several important meetings in Moscow involving representatives of the Taliban regime. When asked about a possible Russian return to Afghanistan the foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was dismissive. It is clear that any future Russian involvement in the country will be in the context of the SCO.
At the request of the Tajikistan government Russia has sent a contingent of troops to that country to assist with border protection. The Tajikistan government became alarmed at the influx of Afghan refugees across its borders which threatened the countries capacity to cope with a sudden and large influx of refugees.
The numbers however, remain relatively small. They do not begin to compare with the estimated 1.5 million Afghans who have sought refuge in Pakistan over the years. The Pakistan government is sympathetic to the Taliban, which is one reason why it refused an American request for the use of its military facilities following the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan, now scheduled for August.
The Americans have announced that they reserve the right to mount air attacks in Afghanistan, presumably flying from one of their Middle East bases. It is difficult to see the rationale behind this announcement. The United States has no sustainable interest in Afghanistan. The flights will presumably be in support of Afghan government troops, but it is difficult seeing the latter having any substantial role following the inevitable Taliban takeover of the country which must now be only a matter of time.
The position of other foreign troops must also be open to question. The Australian government for example, has been conspicuously quiet on the fate of its military contingent in Afghanistan which began 20 years ago. They were first committed to Afghanistan following 11 September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centre and have been there ever since. The then Australian Prime Minister John Howard cited the ANZUS treaty as the rationale for the involvement, the only time the treaty has ever been invoked.
A number of Australian troops are now under investigation for allegedly murdering Afghanistan prisoners. Whether that matter now proceeds in the light of Australia’s withdrawal of his troops from Afghanistan is an open question. Post withdrawal support for the Afghan government is now conspicuously absent. The response to a Taliban takeover is unknown, but it is unlikely to be favourable.
Afghanistan’s best hope for the future lies in its association with the SCO. The early signs are encouraging with a positive response being shown both by the Taliban leadership and also the major countries involved in the SCO, especially China and Russia. For the first time in several decades, Afghanistan future at last looks positive.
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