Australia Confronts a Changing Economic World
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作者：James O’Neill* 点击：
发布时间：2020-09-10 16:10:42
The nature of Australia’s trading relationship with the rest of the world has changed dramatically in the 75 years since the end of World War II. In 1945–46 the total value of Australia’s exports of goods and services was $19 billion. It remained relatively low for the next 25 years, passing $50 billion only in 1969-70. It took a further 15 years to double, passing the $100 billion mark in 1984–85. It doubled again to $200 billion in 2000-01, and more than doubled again to $473.7 billion in 2019.
The nature of Australia’s export commodities has also changed rapidly over recent decades. Right up until the early 1980s rural commodities such as wool and meat dominated Australia’s exports. The shift away from this rural product reliance began in the 1970s, initially driven by exports of coal and iron ore.
Service exports began to assume a more dominant role in the 1980s. Short-term visitor arrivals into Australia went for about 137,000 in the early 1960s to over 2.5 million in 1991–92 and 9.3 million in 2019. The rural sector had a corresponding drop in its relative importance, accounting for about 42% of exports in 1969-70 to around 10% in 2018–19. Minerals and fuels on the other hand rose from under 17% to over 50% in the same period.
It was not just the structure of Australia’s exports that changed rapidly. The principal markets also changed radically. In the early 1960s the United Kingdom took 24% of Australia’s exports, the United States 13%, China 7.7% and Japan 22.4%. The figures for 2018-19 show a radical change. The United Kingdom has shrunk to less than 1.5%, the United States 3.9%, Japan a small shrinkage to 18% and a dramatic rise for China to just under 37% of the total.
Of Australia’s 25 largest export markets, (who account for the overwhelming majority of total exports) Asian countries constituted the greatest proportion, both in number and in value. Of the top 10 export markets, seven were in Asia (the other three being the United Kingdom, 4th, the United States 5th, and New Zealand 8th.) China, by far the largest market was 2.5 times greater than Japan in second place, and more than 10 times greater than the United Kingdom and the United States, each of the latter two accounting for less than 10% of the value of the Chinese market.
The year 2020 has seen some radical changes in Australia’s relationship with China, not all of which can be attributed to the virus. Australia’s exports to China fell by nearly a quarter year on year, and fell for each of the last five months to August 2020. It would be unwise to attribute this loss to the coronavirus effect. China’s imports from all nations grew by 6% in the year to August 2020 and the country’s economy, including imports, has had a relatively short and minor impact from the virus.
The Chinese view as expressed in the Party’s media outlet, the Global Times, in a series of articles featuring Australia in recent weeks, is that the slump in trade is a direct consequence of the deteriorating political relationship between the two countries. If the slump continues, and there are no signs at all of any improvement in the relationship, quite the contrary, the economic consequences for Australia will be devastating.
Unlike the food exports of decades ago, the market for mineral products is much less elastic. Importing countries have to have the industrial infrastructure to utilise the raw minerals, and new markets cannot be created in the medium, let alone short term.
It is not just exports that will be affected by the rapid cooling of China – Australia relations. Chinese students in 2019 comprised by far the biggest number of foreign students in Australian universities. That market has virtually vanished this year. Similarly, with Chinese tourists, again the largest group in 2019. It would be extremely unwise for either the tourist or the University sectors to expect any improvement in the foreseeable future. Both sectors contributed billions of dollars to Australia’s foreign exchange balance and supported tens of thousands of jobs.
It is not too difficult to ascertain the reasons for the deteriorating relationship between the two countries. A major factor is Australia’s relationship to the United States with the latter country engage in a bitter economic and propaganda war with China. Contrary to the constant claims about the alleged freedom of the United States, it is engaged in a bitter economic war with China, arbitrarily excluding Chinese investment; the forced closure of Chinese companies; the forced closure of a Chinese consulate; reducing entry visas to Chinese citizens across a huge range of areas; and engaging in a constant propaganda war. Allegations of alleged Chinese responsibility for the current coronavirus outbreak is one example, accompanied by a bitter personalisation of the disease as the “China virus” by United States president Donald Trump.
The United States runs an enormous trade deficit with China which is somehow turned into a Chinese “fault”. The blunt reality is different. Chinese education and technology have significantly outpaced the United States in recent years. One manifestation of this is that a huge number of major United States companies have moved their production out of the United States and relocated to China and other Asian countries.
It is not just a cost driven exercise. As noted, the Chinese technology is now superior to that of the United States (as is also the case in Russia), the labour force is better educated, production costs are lower, and the market for advanced goods is rapidly expanding. China lifting 700 million people out of poverty this century alone has had major downstream effects, including an educated, affluent domestic market. The major social indicators in the United States by comparison have nearly all been in the opposite direction.
When one looks at the social and economic indicators in China, they all point to increasing demand for quality imports, whether of raw materials or other indicia of social and economic progress. Australia, with large resources and a small population (about the same as Shanghai) should be in a prime position to benefit from China’s economic progress.
Instead, as the figures now demonstrate, Australia is paying an economic price for its political subservience to the United States. That subservience takes many forms, all of which defy rational explanation if the test was one of a country acting in it own economic interests.
Australia’s willingness to engage in the United States’ foreign wars of choice, from Korea 70 years ago up to and including the ongoing travesties in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. None of that by itself would necessarily have impacted on Australia’s relationship with China. In recent years, and especially in the Trump era, that subservience has taken on a different and more dangerous element.
Australia seems to have completely disregarded the maxim attributed to Lord Palmerston: a country has neither friends nor enemies, only interests. The current actions of the Australian government are the antithesis of enlightened self-interest. To go out of one’s way to annoy and alienate such an important economic partner (in multiple senses) such as China, is simply irrational. The foolishness is compounded by there being an absence of any obvious plan B.
The next few years are likely to be years of hardship for Australia unprecedented in the modern era. The Australian government has only itself to blame. It would be extremely unwise to assume that a change of government in Australia would make the least difference. The Opposition Labor Party is basically an echo chamber when it comes to the government’s actions with regard to China.
The reasons for that go back in all probability to the overthrow of the Labor government in 1975, an exercise from which the party has never fundamentally recovered. Under the Australian electoral system, itself uniquely bad for a so-called democratic nation, no viable alternative to the two major parties seems a realistic prospect. Australia will have to learn to adjust to a new, and harsher, economic reality.
自第二次世界大战结束以来的75年里，澳大利亚与世界其他地区的贸易关系发生了巨大变化。1945-46年间，澳大利亚的商品和服务出口总值为190亿美元。在接下来的25年里，这一数字一直相对较低，仅在1969年至1970年间就突破了500亿美元。又过了15年才翻倍，在1984-85年超过了1000亿美元大关。2000年至2001年，这一数字又翻了一番，达到2000亿美元，2019年又翻了一番多，达到4737亿美元。
近几十年来，澳大利亚出口商品的性质也发生了迅速变化。直到20世纪80年代初，羊毛和肉类等农村商品一直主导着澳大利亚的出口。对这种农村产品依赖的转变始于20世纪70年代，最初是由煤炭和铁矿石出口推动的。
服务出口在20世纪80年代开始发挥更大的主导作用。20世纪60年代初，澳大利亚的短期游客约为13.7万人，1991-92年超过250万人，2019年为930万人。农村部门的相对重要性相应下降，从1969-70年占出口的42%下降到2018-19年的10%左右。
The nature of Australia’s export commodities has also changed rapidly over recent decades. Right up until the early 1980s rural commodities such as wool and meat dominated Australia’s exports. The shift away from this rural product reliance began in the 1970s, initially driven by exports of coal and iron ore.
Service exports began to assume a more dominant role in the 1980s. Short-term visitor arrivals into Australia went for about 137,000 in the early 1960s to over 2.5 million in 1991–92 and 9.3 million in 2019. The rural sector had a corresponding drop in its relative importance, accounting for about 42% of exports in 1969-70 to around 10% in 2018–19. Minerals and fuels on the other hand rose from under 17% to over 50% in the same period.
It was not just the structure of Australia’s exports that changed rapidly. The principal markets also changed radically. In the early 1960s the United Kingdom took 24% of Australia’s exports, the United States 13%, China 7.7% and Japan 22.4%. The figures for 2018-19 show a radical change. The United Kingdom has shrunk to less than 1.5%, the United States 3.9%, Japan a small shrinkage to 18% and a dramatic rise for China to just under 37% of the total.
Of Australia’s 25 largest export markets, (who account for the overwhelming majority of total exports) Asian countries constituted the greatest proportion, both in number and in value. Of the top 10 export markets, seven were in Asia (the other three being the United Kingdom, 4th, the United States 5th, and New Zealand 8th.) China, by far the largest market was 2.5 times greater than Japan in second place, and more than 10 times greater than the United Kingdom and the United States, each of the latter two accounting for less than 10% of the value of the Chinese market.
The year 2020 has seen some radical changes in Australia’s relationship with China, not all of which can be attributed to the virus. Australia’s exports to China fell by nearly a quarter year on year, and fell for each of the last five months to August 2020. It would be unwise to attribute this loss to the coronavirus effect. China’s imports from all nations grew by 6% in the year to August 2020 and the country’s economy, including imports, has had a relatively short and minor impact from the virus.
The Chinese view as expressed in the Party’s media outlet, the Global Times, in a series of articles featuring Australia in recent weeks, is that the slump in trade is a direct consequence of the deteriorating political relationship between the two countries. If the slump continues, and there are no signs at all of any improvement in the relationship, quite the contrary, the economic consequences for Australia will be devastating.
Unlike the food exports of decades ago, the market for mineral products is much less elastic. Importing countries have to have the industrial infrastructure to utilise the raw minerals, and new markets cannot be created in the medium, let alone short term.
It is not just exports that will be affected by the rapid cooling of China – Australia relations. Chinese students in 2019 comprised by far the biggest number of foreign students in Australian universities. That market has virtually vanished this year. Similarly, with Chinese tourists, again the largest group in 2019. It would be extremely unwise for either the tourist or the University sectors to expect any improvement in the foreseeable future. Both sectors contributed billions of dollars to Australia’s foreign exchange balance and supported tens of thousands of jobs.
It is not too difficult to ascertain the reasons for the deteriorating relationship between the two countries. A major factor is Australia’s relationship to the United States with the latter country engage in a bitter economic and propaganda war with China. Contrary to the constant claims about the alleged freedom of the United States, it is engaged in a bitter economic war with China, arbitrarily excluding Chinese investment; the forced closure of Chinese companies; the forced closure of a Chinese consulate; reducing entry visas to Chinese citizens across a huge range of areas; and engaging in a constant propaganda war. Allegations of alleged Chinese responsibility for the current coronavirus outbreak is one example, accompanied by a bitter personalisation of the disease as the “China virus” by United States president Donald Trump.
The United States runs an enormous trade deficit with China which is somehow turned into a Chinese “fault”. The blunt reality is different. Chinese education and technology have significantly outpaced the United States in recent years. One manifestation of this is that a huge number of major United States companies have moved their production out of the United States and relocated to China and other Asian countries.
It is not just a cost driven exercise. As noted, the Chinese technology is now superior to that of the United States (as is also the case in Russia), the labour force is better educated, production costs are lower, and the market for advanced goods is rapidly expanding. China lifting 700 million people out of poverty this century alone has had major downstream effects, including an educated, affluent domestic market. The major social indicators in the United States by comparison have nearly all been in the opposite direction.
When one looks at the social and economic indicators in China, they all point to increasing demand for quality imports, whether of raw materials or other indicia of social and economic progress. Australia, with large resources and a small population (about the same as Shanghai) should be in a prime position to benefit from China’s economic progress.
Instead, as the figures now demonstrate, Australia is paying an economic price for its political subservience to the United States. That subservience takes many forms, all of which defy rational explanation if the test was one of a country acting in it own economic interests.
Australia’s willingness to engage in the United States’ foreign wars of choice, from Korea 70 years ago up to and including the ongoing travesties in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. None of that by itself would necessarily have impacted on Australia’s relationship with China. In recent years, and especially in the Trump era, that subservience has taken on a different and more dangerous element.
Australia seems to have completely disregarded the maxim attributed to Lord Palmerston: a country has neither friends nor enemies, only interests. The current actions of the Australian government are the antithesis of enlightened self-interest. To go out of one’s way to annoy and alienate such an important economic partner (in multiple senses) such as China, is simply irrational. The foolishness is compounded by there being an absence of any obvious plan B.
The next few years are likely to be years of hardship for Australia unprecedented in the modern era. The Australian government has only itself to blame. It would be extremely unwise to assume that a change of government in Australia would make the least difference. The Opposition Labor Party is basically an echo chamber when it comes to the government’s actions with regard to China.
The reasons for that go back in all probability to the overthrow of the Labor government in 1975, an exercise from which the party has never fundamentally recovered. Under the Australian electoral system, itself uniquely bad for a so-called democratic nation, no viable alternative to the two major parties seems a realistic prospect. Australia will have to learn to adjust to a new, and harsher, economic reality.
自第二次世界大战结束以来的75年里，澳大利亚与世界其他地区的贸易关系发生了巨大变化。1945-46年间，澳大利亚的商品和服务出口总值为190亿美元。在接下来的25年里，这一数字一直相对较低，仅在1969年至1970年间就突破了500亿美元。又过了15年才翻倍，在1984-85年超过了1000亿美元大关。2000年至2001年，这一数字又翻了一番，达到2000亿美元，2019年又翻了一番多，达到4737亿美元。
近几十年来，澳大利亚出口商品的性质也发生了迅速变化。直到20世纪80年代初，羊毛和肉类等农村商品一直主导着澳大利亚的出口。对这种农村产品依赖的转变始于20世纪70年代，最初是由煤炭和铁矿石出口推动的。
服务出口在20世纪80年代开始发挥更大的主导作用。20世纪60年代初，澳大利亚的短期游客约为13.7万人，1991-92年超过250万人，2019年为930万人。农村部门的相对重要性相应下降，从1969-70年占出口的42%下降到2018-19年的10%左右。
另一方面，同期矿产和燃料从17%以下上升到50%以上。 迅速变化的不仅仅是澳大利亚的出口结构。主要市场也发生了根本变化。20世纪60年代初，英国占澳大利亚出口的24%，美国占13%，中国占7.7%，日本占22.4%。
2018-19年的数据显示了一个根本性的变化。英国萎缩到不到1.5%，美国萎缩到3.9%，日本萎缩到18%，中国急剧上升到不到37%。 在澳大利亚最大的25个出口市场中(占出口总额的绝大多数)，亚洲国家在数量和价值上都占了最大的比例。在十大出口市场中，七个在亚洲(另外三个是英国，第四，美国第五，新西兰第八。)中国，目前最大的市场比日本大2.5倍，位居第二，比英国和美国大10倍以上，后两者各占中国市场价值不到10%。
2020年，澳大利亚与中国的关系发生了一些根本性的变化，但这并不都是由病毒造成的。澳大利亚对中国的出口同比下降了近四分之一，在截至2020年8月的过去五个月中，每月都有所下降。将这一损失归咎于冠状病毒效应是不明智的。截至2020年8月，中国从所有国家的进口增长了6%，包括进口在内的中国经济受到病毒的影响相对较短且较小。
最近几周，中共媒体《环球时报》在一系列报道澳大利亚的文章中表达了中国的观点，即贸易下滑是两国政治关系恶化的直接后果。如果衰退继续下去，两国关系没有任何改善的迹象，恰恰相反，这对澳大利亚的经济后果将是毁灭性的。
与几十年前的食品出口不同，矿产品市场的弹性要小得多。进口国必须拥有利用原材料的工业基础设施，而且在中期内无法创造新的市场，更不用说短期内了。
受中澳关系迅速降温影响的不仅仅是出口。到目前为止，2019年中国学生在澳大利亚大学的留学生人数最多。该市场今年几乎消失了。同样，中国游客也是2019年最大的群体。在可预见的将来，无论是旅游部门还是大学部门，指望有任何改善都是极其不明智的。这两个部门为澳大利亚的外汇平衡贡献了数十亿美元，并支持了数万个就业岗位。
不难确定两国关系恶化的原因。一个主要因素是澳大利亚与美国的关系，后者与中国进行着激烈的经济和宣传战。与不断声称所谓的美国自由相反，它正在与中国进行一场激烈的经济战争，任意排除中国的投资；中国公司被迫关闭；中国领事馆被迫关闭；在许多领域减少中国公民的入境签证；并不断进行宣传战。
指控中国对当前冠状病毒爆发负有责任就是一个例子，同时美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)将这种疾病痛苦地个性化为“中国病毒”。 美国对中国有巨大的贸易逆差，这不知怎么变成了中国的“过错”。生硬的现实就不一样了。近年来，中国的教育和技术明显超过了美国。这种情况的一个表现是，大量美国大公司将生产移出美国，转移到中国和其他亚洲国家。
这不仅仅是一项成本驱动的工作。如上所述，中国的技术现在优于美国(俄罗斯也是如此)，劳动力受教育程度更高，生产成本更低，先进商品的市场正在迅速扩大。仅在本世纪，中国就让7亿人脱贫，这产生了重大的下游影响，包括一个受过教育、富裕的国内市场。相比之下，美国的主要社会指标几乎都是相反的。
当我们观察中国的社会和经济指标时，它们都指向对高质量进口产品的需求增加，无论是原材料还是其他社会和经济进步的标志。澳大利亚资源丰富，人口少(大约相当于上海)，应该处于从中国经济进步中受益的首要位置。
相反，正如现在的数据显示的那样，澳大利亚正在为其在政治上屈从于美国而付出经济代价。这种屈从有多种形式，如果测试是一个国家为了自身的经济利益而采取的行动，那么所有这些都无法得到合理的解释。
澳大利亚愿意参与美国选择的对外战争，从70年前的朝鲜战争一直到现在的伊拉克、阿富汗和其他地方的悲剧。这些本身都不一定会影响澳大利亚与中国的关系。近年来，尤其是在特朗普时代，这种屈从呈现出不同的、更危险的因素。
澳大利亚似乎完全无视帕默斯顿勋爵的格言:一个国家既没有朋友也没有敌人，只有利益。澳大利亚政府目前的行为与开明的自身利益背道而驰。不择手段地惹恼和疏远中国这样一个重要的经济伙伴(从多种意义上来说)是不理智的。由于没有任何明显的b计划，这种愚蠢变得更加严重。
未来几年很可能是澳大利亚在现代史无前例的艰难岁月。澳大利亚政府只能怪自己。如果认为澳大利亚政府的更迭不会产生什么影响，那将是极其不明智的。反对党工党在政府对中国的行动上基本上是一个共鸣箱。 其原因很可能要追溯到1975年工党政府被推翻，该党从未从根本上恢复过来。澳大利亚的选举制度本身对一个所谓的民主国家非常不利，在这种制度下，除了两大政党之外，没有其他可行的选择似乎是一个现实的前景。澳大利亚将不得不学会适应新的、更严峻的经济现实。
（作者是律师和政治分析师 James O’Neill）
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